While reading up on JavaFX (formerly F3), I stumbled upon a Chris Oliver's blog entry describing his approach to MVM. I was surprised to see that he was looking into this while working on F3.
It really makes sense, though. Java applications suffers from one major issue and that is the startup time. It takes quite a while for the almighty JVM to initialize and warm up. So to make JavaFX successful in the bloody battle with Flash this issue has to be resolved and his approach looks like a possible solution.
There used to be a project at SunLabs led by Grzegorz Czajkowski, called The Barcelona Project which was targeted for JDK7. Unfortunately this project got canned last year after Grzegorz left Sun for Google. I'm not quite sure why SunLabs froze the project. It definitely looked very promising.
One way or another I think that it's not going to take too long and (close to) instant start of Java apps will be real and Consumer JRE will be the solution.